The Future of South Asia: Population Dynamics, Economic Prospects, and Regional Coherence

What do we foresee for South Asia in 2060, in light of the significant changes it has undergone in the past few decades? India has experienced rapid economic growth, but continues to suffer widespread, extreme poverty as well. Afghanistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have seen major conflicts, with Pakistan always seeming on the verge of a major eruption. Nepal and Sri Lanka finally seem to have moved toward peace. As elsewhere, the region's many developments and crosscurrents make reliable predictions difficult, but one relatively neglected set of factors – demographic change – may shed some light on the region's future. Throughout the world, falling mortality rates and declining birth rates have been predictive of growing per-capita incomes, and theoretical reasoning and related evidence are sufficiently compelling to think that the links may indeed be causal. In this vein, this essay explores South Asia's economic prospects through a demographic lens. In addition, as we will see, there are some similar demographic trends across the countries of South Asia, but there are also a number of extreme differences. Regional heterogeneity bears on the question, "to what extent is South Asia a coherent region?"South Asia, demographic change, economic prospects, demographic trends, regional heterogeneity

Social Protection of Older People

Social protection is a major arena of government activity aimed at ensuring that vulnerable population groups receive appropriate and effective public support to ensure their financial security and to safeguard their health. However, despite the growth and extent of social protection programs in both developed and developing countries, most emerging economies have nascent systems and only a small portion of all such efforts address the specific vulnerabilities and needs of older people. This paper (a) discusses the vulnerabilities of older people and the benefits of crafting social programs to address them; (b) describes the nature of social protection and the forms it can take to address those vulnerabilities; (c) reports descriptive evidence on the availability and use of social protection programs; and (d) delineates steps that can be taken to remedy the shortfalls experienced by older people.aging, social protection

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in South Asia

Identifying factors that influence the pace of national economic growth is a time-worn activity of economists. Strangely, demographic change has often been absent from consideration. But new thinking and evidence have highlighted the powerful contribution that demographic change can make to economic growth, and this line of inquiry has some salient implications for understanding past growth in South Asia and assessing and shaping its future prospects.economic growth, South Asia, demographic change

Economic security arrangements in the context of population ageing in India

The rapid ageing of India's population, in conjunction with migration out of rural areas and the continued concentration of the working population in the informal sector, has highlighted the need for better economic security arrangements for the elderly. Traditional family ties that have been key to ensuring a modicum of such security are beginning to fray, and increased longevity is making care of the elderly more expensive. As a result, the elderly are at increased risk of being poor or falling into poverty. In parallel with its efforts to address this issue, the Government of India and some of the Indian states have initiated an array of programmes for providing some level of access to health care or health insurance to the great majority of Indians who lack sufficient access. Formal-sector workers have greater social security than those in the informal sector, but they only represent a small share of the workforce. Women are particularly vulnerable to economic insecurity. India's experience offers some lessons for other countries. Although there is space for private initiatives in the social security arena, it is clear that most such efforts will need to be tax-financed. The role that private providers can play is substantial, even when most funding comes from public sources, but such activity will face greater challenges as more individuals seek benefits. India has also shown that implementation can often be carried out well by states using central government funds, with a set of advantages and disadvantages that such decentralization brings. Finally, India's experience with implementation can offer guidance on issues such as targeting, the use of information technology in social security systems, and human resource management.old age risk, old age benefit, medical care, social security administration, demographic aspect, India

Effects of a Large Fishing Closure on Benthic Communitites in the Western Gulf of Maine: Recovery from the Effects of Gillnets and Otter Trawls

The recovery of benthic communities inside the western Gulf of Maine fishing closure area was evaluated by comparing invertebrate assemblages at sites inside and outside of the closure four to six years after the closure was established. The major restriction imposed by the closure was a year-round prohibition of bottom gillnets and otter trawls. A total of 163 seafloor sites (~half inside and half outside the closure) within a 515-km2 study area were sampled with some combination of Shipek grab, Wildco box corer, or underwater video. Bottom types ranged from mud (silt and clay) to boulders, and the effects of the closure on univariate measures (total density, biomass, taxonomic richness) of benthos varied widely among sediment types. For sites with predominantly mud sediments, there were mixed effects on inside and outside infauna and no effect on epifauna. For sites with mainly sand sediments, there were higher density, biomass, and taxonomic richness for infauna inside the closure, but no significant effects on epifauna. For sites dominated by gravel (which included boulders in some areas), there were no effects on infauna but strong effects on epifaunal density and taxonomic richness. For fishing gear, the data indicated that infauna recovered in sand from the impacts of otter trawls operated inside the closure but that they did not recover in mud, and that epifauna recovered on gravel bottoms from the impact of gillnets used inside the closure. The magnitudes of impact and recovery, however, cannot be inferred directly from our data because of a confounding factor of different fishing intensities outside the closure for a direct comparison of preclosure and postclosure data. The overall negative impact of trawls is likely underestimated by our data, whereas the negative impact of gillnets is likely overestimated

Value Landscape Engineering: identifying costs, water use, labor, and impacts to support landscape choice.

We present a spreadsheet model that identifies the costs, water, labor, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, energy, carbon emissions, and particulates required of and generated by a user-specified residential or commercial landscape over its economic life. This life includes site preparation, materials purchase, installation, annual maintenance and replacing landscape features that wear out or die. Users provide a variety of site-descriptive information and the model queries an extensive database of landscape data to calculate costs, required inputs, and impacts. We verified model results against observations of water, labor, fertilizer, and fuel use over eight years at three landscapes in the Salt Lake City, Utah metropolitan region. We use the model to show tradeoffs in costs and required inputs for a predominately cool-season turfgrass landscape typical for Salt Lake City and other high desert, intermountain western United States cities and potential modifications to that typical landscape. Results highlight strategies water conservation programs can use to encourage property owners to install and adopt water-conserving landscape features and practices. Residential and commercial landscapers, landscape architects, contractors, and property owners can also model current and proposed landscapes and use results to identify a low-cost, low-input landscape that achieves their client’s or their own goals and values

The Hospital Social Work Self-Efficacy Scale

The Hospital Social Work Self-Efficacy Scale (HSWSE, based on Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory) was designed as an outcome measure of social workers' confidence regarding their ability to perform specific hospital social work tasks. Evidence supporting the reliability and validity of the data obtained with the HSWSE was found in a series of studies. References include: Holden, G., Cuzzi, L. C., Rutter, S., Rosenberg, G., & Chernack, P. (1996). The Hospital Social Work Self-Efficacy Scale: Initial development. Research on Social Work Practice, 6, 353-365. Holden, G., Cuzzi, L. C., Rutter, S., Chernack, P., & Rosenberg, G. (1997). The Hospital Social Work Self-Efficacy Scale: A replication. Research on Social Work Practice, 7, 490-499. Holden, G., Cuzzi, L. C., Rutter, S., Chernack, P., Spitzer, W. & Rosenberg, G. (1997). The Hospital Social Work Self-Efficacy Scale: A partial replication and extension. Health & Social Work, 22, 256-263. Cuzzi, L. C., Holden, G., Chernack, P., Rutter, S., & Rosenberg, G. (1997). Evaluating social work field instruction: Rotations versus year-long placements. Research on Social Work Practice, 7, 402-414. Cuzzi, L. C., Holden, G., Rutter, S. Rosenberg, G., & Chernack, P. (1996). A pilot study of fieldwork rotations vs. year long placements for social work students in a public hospital. Social Work in Health Care, 24, 73-91

Nutrient Enrichment Drives Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95312/1/eost16763.pd

GENE-Counter: A Computational Pipeline for the Analysis of RNA-Seq Data for Gene Expression Differences

GENE-counter is a complete Perl-based computational pipeline for analyzing RNA-Sequencing (RNA-Seq) data for differential gene expression. In addition to its use in studying transcriptomes of eukaryotic model organisms, GENE-counter is applicable for prokaryotes and non-model organisms without an available genome reference sequence. For alignments, GENE-counter is configured for CASHX, Bowtie, and BWA, but an end user can use any Sequence Alignment/Map (SAM)-compliant program of preference. To analyze data for differential gene expression, GENE-counter can be run with any one of three statistics packages that are based on variations of the negative binomial distribution. The default method is a new and simple statistical test we developed based on an over-parameterized version of the negative binomial distribution. GENE-counter also includes three different methods for assessing differentially expressed features for enriched gene ontology (GO) terms. Results are transparent and data are systematically stored in a MySQL relational database to facilitate additional analyses as well as quality assessment. We used next generation sequencing to generate a small-scale RNA-Seq dataset derived from the heavily studied defense response of Arabidopsis thaliana and used GENE-counter to process the data. Collectively, the support from analysis of microarrays as well as the observed and substantial overlap in results from each of the three statistics packages demonstrates that GENE-counter is well suited for handling the unique characteristics of small sample sizes and high variability in gene counts